A minimally-viable blog
Everyone in my social group is suddenly arguing about the risk associated with long term complications from covid. I don’t really get why it’s happening now. We knew omicron was coming and almost all of the evidence people are citing is at least a couple months old. But here we are. Prevalence of symptoms Al-Aly,…
Consider the following disagreements: Alice believes it is wrong to restrict immigration into the US because many people would be better off being able to live there, and it would not economically harm anyone else. Bob thinks it is bad to allow unfettered immigration because it would hurt the livelihoods of hard-working Americans. Alice accuses…
Someone on a dating app recently asked me what the “journey of causal events” is that leads to human extinction via AI. This is a very reasonable question. I get asked questions of this sort all the time, though usually in a way that is less directly concrete. It also happens to be exactly the…
[content warning: dispassionate discussion of serious topics] One of the more common uses for social media is reaching a consensus on who is a terrible person. Oftentimes, the way this is done is that Alice quotes Bob as saying something terrible, so that everyone else can notice Bob said something terrible, become outraged, update their…
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I am a cyclist, effective altruist, and probably a compulsive coucher. I care a lot about humanity and the future. I do research to figure out what is going on with AI and how we can make the future brighter.
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Underconfidence